In order to evaluate the optimal energy mix for Lebanon, AUB and Strategy& modeled different scenarios for Lebanon using the LEAP algorithm. It uses different parameters as described in the yellow box below. The study evaluated the current electricity demand and the necessity to close the current energy deficit. It also estimated the growth in demand and the consumption by 2030.
From 2019, Lebanon will need to approximately double its production from the current 15 TWh per year (consumption in 2019 was estimated at 20 TWh, thus the current 5 TWh deficit) to around 29 TWh by 2030.
The modeling resulted in two different scenarios: a 31% green energy adoption and another leading to a higher 47% renewables production in the energy mix.
As Lebanon benefits from high solar, wind and hydro availability, the main constraints identified to reach the highest adoption scenario (close to 50%), were the availability of land and grid capacity and stability.
In collaboration with CNRS (National Council for Scientific Research), LFRE identified suitable plots and mapped out close to 50 solar plants that can provide up to 13 GW of electricity. In addition, we evaluated Lebanon’s wind capacity to be close to 5 GW through approximately 1100 wind turbines. Such wind and solar potential could theoretically cover all of Lebanon’s energy needs many times over.
As a result of such analysis, LFRE adopted a 30% target by 2024-5 and a 50% objective by 2030.
EMERGENCY PLAN
While moderately upgrading its grid capacity, Lebanon can immediately launch around 1500 MW of solar plants in addition to 600 MW for wind. The sites have been identified mainly on government owned land.
Such projects can be operational by 2022, alleviating a large part of our energy shortage and providing close to 18-20 hours of electricity per day on average. In parallel, more important fast-track upgrades to the grid, will allow the addition of 1000 MW yearly to reach close to 4000 MW or 30% of our energy demand by 2024 and an additional 2000 MW by 2030.
With a much lower cost basis, EDL will become profitable in fours years as forecasted by McKinsey.
Source: Strategy& / AUB / LFRE
Quick Cost Reduction
To reach its 50% green energy target by 2030, Lebanon must build around 6 GW of wind and solar plants. By exploiting Lebanon’s potential for clean pumped hydro-storage, integrating battery storage or selling our excess electricity to Syria, Lebanon could reach such objectives faster and integrate more renewables into its energy sourcing.
Compared to the actual cost of energy, this rapid adoption of renewables will also lead to a reduction in the country’s energy bill by close to 57% by 2030.
This energy transition must also be the first phase to fully decarbonize the country’s energy sourcing within the next 15-20 years in order to move into a sustainable economic model.
Source: Strategy& / AUB / LFRE
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